The college football season has reached the home stretch. With just one month left until the conference championship weekend, teams will now use the month of November to jockey for Pac-12 positioning and bowl berths. As it sits right now the Pac-12 looks to be a two horse race, with the two teams on a collision course.
Right now Oregon and Stanford are both undefeated in conference play and sit atop the conference and the north division. The two teams will meet next weekend in what could be a battle for a Pac-12 championship, or at least a birth to the championship game.
Oregon will first have to travel to the always hostile Husky Stadium and get by a Washington team whose only losses have come to teams ranked in the top-ten. Stanford will travel to Corvallis to take on the Oregon State Beavers in what should be an absolute beat down.
Arizona State seems to have the south division wrapped up already, but only because USC isn’t eligible for the postseason. Arizona State got a scheduling gift by not having to play Stanford or Washington, who are two of the top teams in the conference. If the Sun Devils take care of business in their remaining pushover games, they should finish the season with a 10-2 (8-1) record and should be ranked near the top-ten for the Pac-12 championship game.
The season’s intensity really starts to ramp up from here on out and with all twelve conference teams in action this week, we will be one week closer to knowing who will play in the innagural Pac-12 Championship come December.
The last week I picked was week eight when I went 3-3. That brings my season record to 33-14. After a couple mediocre weeks of picking I hope to get myself back on track with this week’s six games.
Friday November 4th @ 6:00 P.M. in Boulder, Colorado
We will see one of two versions of the USC Trojans tonight when they take the field against the miserable Colorado Buffaloes.
The first would be a team absolutely destroyed by the heartbreaking triple overtime loss they suffered against Stanford last weekend. USC has no shot at the postseason or any bowls, so after suffering such a tough loss the Trojans may not have any fight left in them.
On the other hand we may see a Trojan team that is fired up over their close loss to one of the best teams in the country. If this is the Trojan team we see tonight it will be a bloodbath. USC is far superior in the talent department and with any motivation they will roll.
Even if we see the deflated USC squad they will still win more than likely. Colorado is winless in the Pac-12 and has been the league’s punching bag so far this season. The closest conference game they have played this year was against Wahington State, when they lost 31-27.
Colorado came into the year a bad team, but injuries have turned bad into miserable. The Buffaloes likely won’t win a conference game this year, but if they can it won’t be against the talented Trojans.
My pick: USC 38, Colorado 7
Score: USC 42, Colorado 17
Saturday November 5th @ 12:30 P.M. in Corvallis, Oregon
I think I may get a Beaver game right this week. Of my thirteen wrong picks so far this season, six of them were Beaver games. Win or lose I just don’t get their games right, however I think I have got this one.
A lot of experts are picking this to be a trap game for the Cardinal. They say that with Stanford coming off the emotional thriller against USC and with a top-ten matchup next weekend versus Oregon, that the Cardinal will forget to show up against the Beavers.
It wouldn’t be the first time a team forgot to show up in this series either. Last year when the Beavers traveled down to Palo Alto to take on Andrew Luck and the Cardinal, they just didn’t show up. The Beavers were one week away from one of the biggest Civil Wars ever and a chance to ruin Oregon’s national championship bid, but they forgot about Stanford. The Cardinal won the game 35-0 in the end and it was apparent that the Beavers were already thinking about their next game.
We won’t see Stanford return the favor this year however. Stanford is on a mission and they know what they have a chance to do this year. Their only real test still to come this season is the game against Oregon in one week.
Even though Oregon State is know for upsetting top-ranked teams at home, they are just too young and too inexerienced to keep up with Andrew Luck and pull off the upset. Plus Stanford isn’t USC. I’ll take Stanford big.
My pick: Stanford 49, Oregon State 17
Score: Stanford 38, Oregon State 13
Saturday November 5th @ 3:30 P.M. in San Francisco, California
This game appears to be the battle for last place in the Pac-12 North division. Both of these teams come into this game having lost four out of their last five, Washington State has lost four straight.
Both teams started the year with good records but it appears that was only due to their weak non conference schedules. Since starting Pac-12 play, Washington State has been outscored 186-119 and have had at least 27 points scored against them every game. California has been outscored 145-95 and they have given up at least 30 points in all four losses.
Both programs need a win desperately to say the least but if either team has any shot at going to a bowl, this game is crucial. Cal has a game against Oregon State next weekend, but then closes the season against Stanford and Arizona State. Assuming they won’t even come close to winning their final two games, this week and next week’s Beaver games are must wins.
Washington State’s road to a bowl game may be a little easier but they have to win three of their last four. With games against Arizona State and Washington still on the schedule, bowl season looks like a pipe dream for the Cougars.
Cal has the better defense in this one, but Washington State has the edge on offense and both have sporadic quarterbacks. I think it will be the team that wins the turnover battle who wins this game. I’ll take Cal in a close one.
My pick: Washington State 24, California 27
Score: Washington State 7, California 30
Saturday November 5th @ 4:00 P.M. in Tucson, Arizona
Now we shift our attention to the bottom feeder game in the Pac-12 South division. While this may not be a battle for last place in the south it is only because Colorado seems to have that title wrapped up.
If it weren’t for Colorado however, this would be the battle for the bottom of the south as both schools only have one conference win this year. The way Utah’s schedule plays out they quiet possibly could finish 8-4 (5-4) and find themselves in a decent bowl like the Holiday Bowl. After this weekend’s game, the Utes play UCLA, at Washington State and Colorado; all very winnable games.
Arizona on the other hand would really have to do some work to become bowl eligible. Even if the Wildcats are able to become eligible, the best they can go is 6-6 (4-5). That isn’t out of the realm of possibility however, after this weekend the Cats play at Colorado, at rival Arizona State and then against Louisiana-Lafayette. An upset win over ASU and a win today may be all that stands between the Wildcats and a bowl game.
The Wildcats are 1-1 since they fired Mike Stoops with their loss coming at Washington last weekend. Arizona had their chances to win the game but just couldn’t stop Washington’s offense in the end. As the coaching search heats up in Tucson, Tim Kish is fighting for a chance to keep the head coaching job.
I think Nick Foles is the difference and the Wildcats are able to get Tish his second win as head coach.
My pick: Utah 27, Arizona 38
Score: Utah 34, Arizona 21
Saturday November 5 @ 4:30 P.M. in Los Angeles, California
This game actually will decide the champion of the Pac-12 South.
If UCLA can pull off a win against the nineteenth ranked Sun Devils they will sit atop the south division tied with ASU and will hold the tiebreaker. If the Bruins are to win both teams would be 4-2 in the conference and the first tiebreaker for a division title is head-to-head competition.
Both teams have three winnable games after this weekend so the chance to represent the south in the Pac-12 Championship is really on the line today. ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit could have the pick of the season if UCLA can some how manage to win the south as he picked them to play Oregon in the championship before the season began.
While a win today would mean UCLA is in the race for the south title, a win for ASU would not only be huge for their program, but it would also be huge for the conference. If ASU can win tonight and then continue on to win the rest of their games they will finish 10-2 (8-1). The Sun Devils then would likely finish somewhere in or near the top-ten in the BCS standings.
If ASU was say number ten in the BCS rankings heading into the Pac-12 Championship and faced off against a third ranked Oregon or Stanford, the Pac-12 would benefit greatly.
I think ASU wraps ups the south tonight and ends the Bruins hopes of playing in the first Pac-12 championship.
My pick: Arizona State 35, UCLA 17
Score: Arizona State 28, UCLA 29
Saturday November 5th @ 7:30 P.M. in Seattle, Washington
It has been eight years since the Huskies last beat the Ducks. It has also been eight years since the Huskies have come within 20 points of the Huskies, but this year things just feel different going into this heated rivalry.
For the past seven years Oregon has had the privilege of kicking the Dawgs while they have been down. The Washington program is finally starting to look like it has made the turn to becoming a good team in the Pac-12 once again.
We are only twenty years removed from the Huskies being crowned the AP National Champions and after almost a decade of suffering, Huskies fans finally feel like they are returning to glory.
As the program celebrates the twenty year anniverasry of its lone national championship and plays the last game ever at Husky Staduim as we know it tonight, the Huskies will try to do something Jake Locker was never able to do; beat Oregon.
However beating Oregon will be no easy task. Oregon hasn’t lost a Pac-12/10 game in two years (almost to the day), giving them 17 straight conference wins. The Ducks are fourth in the nation in scoring this year, and fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game.
Washington boasts the fourth best run-defense in the conference, but have yet to face a backfield half as deep as Oregon’s. Something many people don’t realize is that Oregon is ranked third in the Pac-12 in points allowed per game, despite the fact their defense is on the field 60% of the game. Oregon’s offensive time of possession (by percent of game time played) ranks dead last in the country.
Oregon’s rushing game is going to dominate and rain on the 20-year party in Husky stadium today. The Ducks win a game that starts close but ends in a double-digit difference.
My pick: Oregon 45, Washington 31
Score: Oregon 34, Washington 17
